Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Dodgers vs Giants – Friday, July 11, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 11, 2025, both teams find themselves in an intriguing matchup, especially with the Giants coming off a solid performance recently. Currently, the Dodgers hold a strong position with a record of 56-38, while the Giants are just above .500 at 51-43. This National League West clash is significant, as it marks the first game in a series that could impact both teams’ momentum heading into the latter part of the season.

Logan Webb, projected to start for the Giants, has been a standout this year, boasting a Win/Loss record of 8-6 and an impressive ERA of 2.62. His advanced metrics rank him as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his elite status. Webb’s high groundball rate (54% this season) may play to his advantage against a powerful Dodgers lineup that has hit 142 home runs this year, ranking 2nd in the league. However, Webb’s ability to limit walks (5.5 BB% this year) will be crucial against a Dodgers offense that excels at drawing them.

On the other side, Dodgers’ Dustin May presents a different challenge. With a record of 5-5 and an ERA of 4.52, his performance has been average by most standards. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs. Given the Giants’ struggles offensively, ranking 24th in MLB, this matchup may not favor them as much as it seems on paper.

Betting markets have set the Game Total at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tightly contested game. The Giants’ current moneyline of -130 suggests they are slight favorites, but with the Dodgers’ potent offense and the Giants’ offensive woes, this matchup could be closer than anticipated.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Dustin May (45.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in San Francisco’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Extreme groundball bats like Mookie Betts are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Webb.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (+115)
  The best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Logan Webb has used his change-up 9.9% less often this season (21%) than he did last season (30.9%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Dominic Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+12.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 66 games (+6.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+6.95 Units / 18% ROI)