Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Cubs vs Reds – Friday, May 23rd, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the Chicago Cubs on May 23, 2025, at Great American Ball Park, they find themselves in a battle of contrasting fortunes. The Reds sit at 25-26 this season, having an average run, while the Cubs are enjoying a strong campaign with a 30-20 record, marking them as one of the better teams in the league. This matchup is particularly significant as it opens a series between two National League Central rivals, making each game critical for both teams’ aspirations.

In their last outing, the Reds’ Hunter Greene is slated to pitch, coming off a strong stretch despite a projected performance that may leave fans wanting more—averaging just 4.8 innings pitched. Greene has registered a 2.36 ERA this season, positioning him as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. However, his 2.91 xFIP suggests a degree of luck that could indicate potential regression. Facing him will be Matthew Boyd, whose own 2.98 ERA and 48th place ranking among pitchers in MLB highlight his solid performance, though he too carries a higher xFIP of 3.82.

Offensively, the Reds rank 12th in MLB, which they will need to bolster against a Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd overall. While the Reds excel in base running, ranking 4th in stolen bases, they will face a powerful Cubs squad that has launched 69 homers this season—5th most in the league—and boasts their own fleet of speedy players.

Betting markets have both teams even with a moneyline set at -110 for each, indicating that this matchup is anticipated to be a closely contested affair. With average implied totals of 4.25 runs for both teams, the stakes are high for this duel in Cincinnati, as the Reds look to gain momentum and the Cubs aim to maintain their winning ways.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  In his previous outing, Matthew Boyd was rolling and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Spencer Steer’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.7-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 81.5-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati’s 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the game: #28 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 46 games (+13.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 44 games (+8.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.55 Units / 13% ROI)