Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Cubs vs Dodgers – Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Chicago Cubs on September 11, 2024, the stakes are high, particularly after the Cubs triumphed over the Dodgers 6-3 just yesterday. With the Dodgers holding a solid 86-59 record, they are well-positioned in the playoff hunt, while the Cubs, at 75-70, are aiming to solidify their above-average season.

Bobby Miller is set to take the mound for the Dodgers, despite struggling this year with a 2-4 record and a troubling ERA of 7.79. His last outing saw him get roughed up, allowing 7 earned runs in just 5 innings. However, his 4.46 xFIP suggests that he might be due for some positive regression. On the other hand, Jordan Wicks will start for the Cubs, bringing a more respectable 4.03 ERA to the game. While Wicks is considered an average pitcher, he has shown signs of improvement in his recent performances, making this matchup intriguing.

Offensively, the Dodgers boast the 3rd best lineup in MLB, highlighted by Shohei Ohtani’s standout season. Ohtani has been a force, leading the Dodgers with 46 home runs and 115 runs scored. In contrast, the Cubs rank 15th in overall offense and 20th in home runs, indicating they might struggle against a potent Dodgers pitching staff.

The projections favor the Dodgers, who are expected to score an impressive 5.57 runs on average in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Cubs are projected to muster around 4.72 runs. Given the Dodgers’ offensive prowess and the Cubs’ recent success, this game promises to be a thrilling encounter as both teams vie for crucial wins in the season’s final stretch.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jordan Wicks – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jordan Wicks is projected to throw 79 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Cody Bellinger has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Dodgers only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 6th-best batter in the league when assessing his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+10.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+12.40 Units / 32% ROI)