Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Braves vs Mets – Wednesday, August 13th, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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New York Mets

On August 13, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field in a critical National League East matchup. The Mets are currently sitting at 64-55, enjoying an above-average season, while the Braves are struggling at 51-68. Recently, the Mets faced the Braves in the first game of this series, where they emerged victorious, adding to Atlanta’s woes.

David Peterson is projected to take the mound for the Mets. Although he’s ranked 121st among starting pitchers in MLB Power Rankings, his 2.98 ERA indicates he’s been effective this season. However, his 3.64 xFIP suggests that he may have been a bit fortunate, hinting at potential regression. Peterson’s ability to pitch an average of 5.5 innings today while allowing 2.8 earned runs will be key for the Mets.

On the other side, Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled this season with a 6.18 ERA, is set to start for the Braves. Carrasco’s performance has been deemed one of the worst in the league, and his projections indicate he may only last 4.4 innings while allowing 3.3 earned runs. This matchup presents a stark contrast, as the Mets’ offense, which ranks 13th in the league, has the potential to exploit Carrasco’s vulnerabilities.

As the Mets are favored with a moneyline of -195, they boast a strong implied team total of 5.18 runs. With a solid bullpen ranked 10th overall, the Mets are well-positioned to secure another win against the Braves, who are looking to turn their season around. Given the current form and matchup, the Mets should have the upper hand in this contest.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Carlos Carrasco’s sinker percentage has spiked by 5.4% from last season to this one (16.6% to 22%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Sean Murphy’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 88.6-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 80.5-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Atlanta Braves offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  David Peterson’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this season (90.5 mph) below where it was last year (91.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Brett Baty has suffered from bad luck this year. His .301 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .337.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• New York Mets batters jointly rank 3rd- in the league for power this year when judging by their 10.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 57 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 91 games (+5.25 Units / 5% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.70 Units / 50% ROI)