Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago Cubs
(-110/-110)-165
As the Chicago Cubs host the Toronto Blue Jays at Wrigley Field on August 17, 2024, both teams come into this matchup following a tightly contested game yesterday, where the Cubs edged the Blue Jays 6-5. With the Cubs sitting at 60-63, they are having an average season, while the Blue Jays, at 57-65, find themselves below average.
The Cubs will rely on Justin Steele, who has been solid this year and is ranked as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting a commendable ERA of 3.16. However, he has faced some luck, as indicated by his 3.77 xFIP, suggesting his performance may decline moving forward. On the other hand, Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays, ranked 73rd, has struggled, especially in his last outing where he allowed 7 earned runs over just 4 innings.
Offensively, the Cubs rank 21st in MLB, which is concerning, particularly given their low rankings in team batting average and home runs. However, they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 8th. The Blue Jays, while slightly better at 19th, have been particularly poor in power, ranking 27th in home runs. This matchup sees the Cubs as favorites with a current moneyline of -165, and projections suggest they will score around 4.52 runs, while the Blue Jays are projected for 4.08 runs.
In terms of individual performances, Ian Happ has been the Cubs’ standout hitter this season, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the Blue Jays. With both teams looking to capitalize on their opponent’s weaknesses, this game promises to be another close contest.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Chris Bassitt has used his four-seam fastball 5.7% less often this year (3.6%) than he did last season (9.3%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- George Springer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)As it relates to his batting average, George Springer has experienced some negative variance this year. His .218 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .276.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Justin Steele – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Justin Steele’s 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 16th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Dansby Swanson has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 8.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 7 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the Chicago Cubs offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+7.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 48 games (+19.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+12.00 Units / 19% ROI)