Twins vs Tigers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Saturday, July 27, 2024

Minnesota Twins

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Detroit Tigers

As the American League Central’s Detroit Tigers face off against the Minnesota Twins on July 27, 2024, the two teams will battle it out at Comerica Park. The Tigers, sitting with an average season record of 51-54, will look to rebound from their 9-3 loss to the Twins on July 26. The Twins, having a solid season with a 57-45 record, will aim to extend their success and challenge Detroit’s elite starting pitcher, Tarik Skubal.

It’s a marquee pitching matchup as the Tigers’ left-handed ace, Tarik Skubal, takes the mound. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Skubal is the #1 ranked starting pitcher in MLB, boasting an impressive 11-3 record and a stellar 2.34 ERA over 20 starts. While he stumbled slightly in his last outing on July 22, allowing 10 hits and a walk, he still only gave up one earned run. Skubal projects to strike out 6.9 batters and allow just 2.0 earned runs in this start, a promising outlook for Detroit fans.

On the other side, the Twins counter with right-hander Joe Ryan, who is ranked as the #19 best starting pitcher. Ryan’s season numbers include a 6-6 record with a commendable 3.65 ERA and a promising 2.95 xERA, hinting at better performances ahead. In his last start on July 21, Ryan pitched six innings while allowing four earned runs.

While the pitching duel favors Detroit slightly, the offensive dynamics present a contrasting picture. The Tigers’ offense ranks poorly overall (#25 in MLB), with lackluster rankings in team batting average (#23) and stolen bases (#26). However, they show some power with a middle-of-the-pack ranking (#18) in home runs. Jake Rogers has been a bright spot for Detroit recently, posting a .917 OPS over the past week.

Conversely, the Twins’ offense is among the best in the league, ranking 6th overall, buoyed by a #7 ranking in team batting average and #8 in home runs. Willi Castro leads the Twins’ hitters with a .261 batting average and 10 stolen bases this season. Matt Wallner has been hot lately, recording a .333 batting average and a 1.383 OPS over the last week.

Despite the Tigers being slight underdogs with a Moneyline of -110 and implied win probability of 50%, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 52% chance of securing a win. With both teams projected to score low in this close game, the Tigers’ elite pitching could be the key to tipping the scales in their favor.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Joe Ryan has used his four-seam fastball 8.9% less often this year (48%) than he did last year (56.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Ryan Jeffers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Tarik Skubal’s fastball velocity has spiked 1.2 mph this season (96.2 mph) over where it was last year (95 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Jake Rogers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jake Rogers has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 95.1-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bligh Madris – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In today’s game, Bligh Madris is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.2% rate (79th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 22 games (+13.75 Units / 42% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+7.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+8.30 Units / 22% ROI)