Twins vs Mariners Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 5/31/25

Minnesota Twins

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Seattle Mariners

On May 31, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Minnesota Twins at T-Mobile Park in what is shaping up to be a competitive matchup between two teams with identical records of 30-25. Both teams find themselves in the midst of above-average seasons, but only one has the potential to take advantage of a favorable matchup on the mound. The Mariners emerged victorious in yesterday’s contest, setting the stage for a critical second game in the series.

Bryce Miller, the Mariners’ projected starter, has been less than stellar this season, posting a 2-4 record with a 5.22 ERA, which ranks him as the 94th best starting pitcher in MLB. His ability to go deep into games has been a concern, projecting to pitch just 4.8 innings and allowing 1.8 earned runs on average today. While he struggles with high walk rates (12.1 BB%), he may find some relief against a Twins offense that ranks as the 4th least patient in the league.

On the other side, Bailey Ober stands out with a 4-1 record and a much-improved 3.41 ERA, making him the 64th best pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings. Ober’s ability to limit walks (5.2 BB%) poses a challenge for the Mariners, who rank 3rd in the league for drawing walks. However, his high flyball rate (43 FB%) might leave him vulnerable against a powerful Mariners lineup that ranks 6th in home runs.

With both teams’ offenses struggling in various aspects—the Mariners holding the 20th and the Twins sitting at 23rd in batting average—they’ll need to capitalize on any opportunities. The low Game Total of 7.0 runs suggests a close contest. Notably, the Mariners’ current moneyline at -110 implies a tight battle, but their stronger ranking in overall team performance may provide them with the edge they need to secure another win.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Bailey Ober’s 90-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.7-mph decline from last season’s 91.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme groundball batters like Byron Buxton usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryce Miller.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryce Miller to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 18 games at home (+11.80 Units / 60% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+12.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Willi Castro has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+12.50 Units / 208% ROI)