Twins vs Braves Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Sunday April 20, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on April 20, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing, sitting near the bottom of their respective divisions. The Braves hold a record of 7-13, while the Twins are just slightly worse at 7-14, showcasing a season marked by disappointment thus far. These two clubs met yesterday, with the Braves managing a narrow 4-3 victory, a much-needed win that could spark a turnaround.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start Grant Holmes, who has had a somewhat uneventful season with a 3.78 ERA and a 1-1 record. However, his 4.69 xFIP suggests he may have been riding some luck early on, and he faces a Twins lineup that ranks 27th in scoring and has shown little power this year, with just 15 home runs overall. Holmes, a high-walk pitcher with a 14.9 BB% this season, might not face too much resistance from a Twins offense that ranks 4th least in walks taken. This matchup could favor Holmes, given the Twins’ struggles to capitalize on free opportunities.

On the other side, Joe Ryan takes the mound for Minnesota, boasting an impressive 2.45 ERA and a strong 1-1 record. Though his projections show a slight dip in expected performance, Ryan’s ability to strike out batters—he fanned 8 in his last outing—could keep the Braves’ average offense (ranked 19th) in check.

With the Game Total set at a modest 8.0 runs and the Braves having an implied team total of 4.10 runs, this contest is expected to be closely contested. The Braves will rely on their best hitter, who has been showing promising form lately, to generate offense and potentially lead them to another victory.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Joe Ryan has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 10.5% less often this year (35.1%) than he did last season (45.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Trevor Larnach’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 93.2-mph mark last season has decreased to 85.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Minnesota Twins have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Grant Holmes has recorded a 12.9% Swinging Strike% since the start of last season, grading out in the 86th percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme groundball batters like Ozzie Albies are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 10.3% Barrel% of the Atlanta Braves makes them the #2 squad in baseball since the start of last season by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 away games (+7.05 Units / 141% ROI)