Twins vs Athletics Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Wednesday, June 04, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Athletics

The Oakland Athletics will host the Minnesota Twins on June 4, 2025, in what has turned into a pivotal series. Currently, the Athletics sit at 23-39, struggling this season, while the Twins hold a stronger record at 33-27. The Athletics have faced challenges in their recent games, losing to the Twins 10-3 yesterday, which capped off a series of disappointing performances.

On the pitching front, Oakland is projected to start Jeffrey Springs, who has had an up-and-down season, currently ranking as the 187th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Springs holds a Win/Loss record of 5-4 this year with an ERA of 4.72 but has an xERA of 4.10, suggesting he may have been unlucky and could improve. Notably, Springs’ last outing saw him struggling significantly, giving up 6 earned runs in just 2 innings.

In contrast, Minnesota’s Zebby Matthews comes into the game with a 0-1 record and a rough ERA of 6.43, although his xFIP sits at a promising 2.48, indicating potential improvements ahead. Matthews pitched 7 innings in his last start, allowing 4 earned runs while striking out 7 batters, showcasing that he possesses the skill to keep the Athletics in check.

The Athletics’ offense has surprisingly performed well, ranking 8th in MLB but has faltered when it matters most, especially given their poor record. The projections indicate that they may score around 4.29 runs in this matchup against a Twins squad that is expected to put up approximately 5.71 runs. As the Athletics try to turn their season around, they’ll need a significant performance from Springs and their hitters to compete effectively.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Zebby Matthews’s fastball velocity has risen 1.1 mph this year (96 mph) over where it was last year (94.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under Hits
  Brooks Lee has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Minnesota Twins offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Jeffrey Springs is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue in MLB in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  JJ Bleday may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games (+9.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 53 games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Royce Lewis has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 72% ROI)