Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
(-120/+100)+120
As the Seattle Mariners face off against the Oakland Athletics at Oakland Coliseum on September 5, 2024, both teams are looking to find their footing late in the season. The Mariners sit at .500 with a 70-70 record, while the Athletics are struggling with a 61-79 mark. In their last game, the Mariners fell to the Athletics, intensifying the stakes for this American League West matchup.
Starting for the Athletics is Joey Estes, who has had a tumultuous year and is currently ranked 228th among MLB starters. Despite a respectable 4.29 ERA, his 5.07 xFIP indicates potential struggles ahead. Estes has a tendency to allow too many hits (projected 4.6 today) and walks (projected 1.3), which could be problematic against a Mariners lineup that, while underperforming this season, still has the capability to capitalize on mistakes.
On the mound for the Mariners is Bryan Woo, who has been impressive this season with a 2.30 ERA and a much better ranking of 32nd among MLB starters. Woo’s solid performance is backed by a more favorable 3.89 xFIP, suggesting he might maintain his excellent form. Notably, Woo has a strong win-loss record of 6-2, and the projections indicate he’ll allow a mere 2.2 earned runs today.
While the Athletics’ offense ranks 20th overall, they excel in power, sitting 4th in the league for home runs. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ offense struggles significantly, ranking 28th in overall performance and dead last in batting average. This matchup heavily favors Woo, especially given his ability to handle a high-strikeout Athletics offense.
With the projections favoring the Mariners to score an average of 4.82 runs, they must capitalize on their opportunities, especially against a pitcher who has shown vulnerabilities. As the game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, bettors will want to keep a close eye on how these pitchers perform in this crucial matchup.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)Bryan Woo has been one of the luckiest mound aces in baseball on balls in play this year with a .222 BABIP and should see that luck normalize going forward.Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
- Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Luke Raley has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 89.5-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Oakland Athletics Insights
- Oakland Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)Joey Estes is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue among all major league parks today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Brent Rooker has been lucky this year, posting a .397 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .358 — a .039 deviation.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- The Oakland Athletics have 5 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle McCann, Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof, Brent Rooker, Tristan Gray).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+120)The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 60 games (+10.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+10.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 47 games (+12.40 Units / 23% ROI)