TV Channel Information for D-Backs vs Guardians – Monday August 5, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Cleveland Guardians

On August 5, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Progressive Field in what is set to be the first game of their interleague series. Both teams enter this matchup with contrasting recent performances; the Guardians, currently standing at 67-44, are having a strong season despite a tough loss to the Orioles by a score of 9-5 in their last game, while the Diamondbacks, sitting at 60-52, are coming off a narrow victory against the Pirates, winning 6-5.

The Guardians are projected to send Logan Allen to the mound, who has struggled this year with an ERA of 5.67 and a Power Ranking of 210th among MLB pitchers. However, his 4.61 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Allen’s average projection for today’s game sees him allowing 2.8 earned runs, which is below average, yet he is expected to strike out only 3.8 batters, a concerning figure.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with Zac Gallen, a much more effective pitcher boasting a 3.56 ERA and a Power Ranking of 31st. Gallen’s recent form includes a solid outing where he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 6, making him a key factor in today’s game. The projections favor the Diamondbacks slightly, as they are expected to score 4.70 runs compared to the Guardians’ 4.32.

Cleveland’s offense ranks 13th overall and is led by Jose Ramirez, who has shown exceptional form lately with a .391 batting average and 1.515 OPS over the past week. In contrast, the Diamondbacks have the 6th best offense in MLB and are paced by Ketel Marte, who also brings a strong .300 average.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen will “start” for Arizona Diamondbacks in today’s game but will function as an opener and may not remain in the game more than a couple innings.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Jake McCarthy is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Logan Allen’s cut-fastball utilization has spiked by 6.3% from last season to this one (8.7% to 15%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Steven Kwan has been lucky this year, notching a .380 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .311 — a .069 gap.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+12.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 54 games (+17.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+8.80 Units / 16% ROI)