Detroit Tigers
Oakland Athletics
(-110/-110)-115
As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on September 8, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of a critical matchup in the season’s final stretch. The Athletics, with a record of 62-81, are enduring a challenging season, while the Tigers sit at 72-71, marking them as an average team this year. Despite the Athletics’ struggles, they have shown some power, ranking 4th in MLB for home runs, though they languish at 27th in team batting average.
In their last encounter on September 7, the Athletics narrowly lost to the Tigers by a score of 2-1, a game that featured a competitive edge, as reflected in the closing Moneyline prices for both teams. For this matchup, the Athletics are projected to start J.T. Ginn, who has had a mixed season. Despite being ranked 141st among MLB pitchers, Ginn has shown flashes of potential, particularly in his last start on September 3, where he pitched 6 innings with 2 earned runs and 7 strikeouts. However, his projections for this game aren’t particularly encouraging, as he is expected to struggle with walks and hits.
On the mound for the Tigers is Beau Brieske, who has had a less than stellar season, projecting to pitch just 1.2 innings today. His last outing was abbreviated, and he has struggled with his command, averaging 2 walks in his last start.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Athletics have a higher implied team total of 4.30 runs compared to the Tigers’ 4.20, indicating a slight edge in offensive expectation. The projections suggest that the Athletics could score around 4.50 runs, while the Tigers are projected to score slightly higher at 4.51 runs. As both teams look to gain momentum, this game could serve as a pivotal point for the Athletics to capitalize on their power-hitting capabilities.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Spencer Torkelson is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Detroit Tigers bats collectively have been one of the worst in MLB this year ( 9th-worst) in regard to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Oakland Athletics Insights
- J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Given that groundball hitters hold a substantial advantage over flyball pitchers, J.T. Ginn and his 50% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult position in this outing facing 0 opposing GB hitters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Lawrence Butler has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.1% seasonal rate to 26.1% in the past 14 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Tristan Gray – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)When estimating his overall offensive ability, Tristan Gray ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (-115)The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 49 games (+10.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-210)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 32 away games (+13.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)Colt Keith has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 21 away games (+11.90 Units / 46% ROI)