Top Player Prop Picks for Yankees vs Tigers – April 07, 2025

New York Yankees

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers will host the New York Yankees on April 7, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting American League matchup. The Tigers are currently 5-4 this season and are coming off a close victory over the Yankees, winning 4-3 in their last outing on April 6. Meanwhile, the Yankees are off to a strong start at 6-3 after suffering a narrow loss in that same game.

Pitching will be a focal point in this matchup, with the Tigers set to start Casey Mize, who has a perfect 0.00 ERA this season. Mize’s last start was a strong showing, as he pitched six innings without allowing any earned runs, striking out six batters. However, his xFIP of 3.81 indicates that he may have been a bit lucky, suggesting potential for regression. In contrast, the Yankees will counter with Carlos Rodon, who has a solid 3.97 ERA. Rodon has struggled with walks this season, boasting a 13.3% walk rate, which could be problematic against a Tigers offense that ranks 6th in MLB for drawing walks.

The Yankees’ offense is currently ranked 1st in MLB, highlighted by their impressive power, leading the league with 25 home runs. However, the Tigers aren’t too far behind, ranking 5th in overall offensive production. Both teams will likely aim to exploit the other’s pitching weaknesses, with the Yankees looking to capitalize on Mize’s flyball tendencies.

With the Yankees favored to win, the projections suggest a high implied team total of 4.70 runs, while the Tigers are expected to score around 3.80 runs. As the season unfolds, this matchup could be pivotal for both teams, especially as they navigate through a tightly contested AL landscape.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  This year, Carlos Rodon has introduced a new pitch to his pitch mix (a sinker), using it on 11.9% of his pitches.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, although sinkers are generally one of the least effective pitches.
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Austin Wells is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Detroit (#3-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Anthony Volpe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+130)
  Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Colt Keith is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers’s expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-125)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 58 of their last 95 games (+17.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 80 of their last 144 games (+15.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+9.70 Units / 121% ROI)