Top Player Prop Picks for Royals vs Guardians – August 28, 2024

Kansas City Royals

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals meet for the fourth game of their series at Progressive Field on August 28, 2024. Both teams are currently tied with a record of 75-58, making this matchup significant for positioning as they look to solidify their playoff chances. After splitting the first three games, the Guardians will aim to bounce back after a disappointing 6-1 loss to the Royals in their last outing on August 27.

Tanner Bibee, projected to start for the Guardians, has been solid this season with a 10-6 record and a commendable ERA of 3.46. His strikeout prowess is notable, boasting a 26.7% strikeout rate, but he faces a Royals lineup that has the 2nd least strikeouts in MLB, which could limit his effectiveness. Additionally, Bibee has struggled with walks, averaging 1.1 per game, and will need to be careful against a Royals offense that is disciplined at the plate.

Michael Wacha, starting for the Royals, has also had a strong year, holding an 11-6 record and an impressive ERA of 3.32. However, his xFIP of 4.08 suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate thus far. Wacha pitched well in his last start, allowing just 2 earned runs over 6 innings, which could give him momentum entering this game.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Guardians are favored to win with a projected team total of 4.42 runs, while the Royals are projected to score around 3.99 runs. With both teams having strong bullpens—ranked 11th for the Guardians and 19th for the Royals in Power Rankings—this game could come down to which starter can manage the pressure and minimize damage. All eyes will be on Bibee and Wacha as the Guardians look to reclaim their footing after the recent loss.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• The Kansas City Royals have been the 6th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-150)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-150)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 131 games (+6.22 Units / 4% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+130)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 away games (+9.80 Units / 42% ROI)
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)
  Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 48 games (+23.50 Units / 49% ROI)