Top Player Prop Picks for Rockies vs Astros – August 28, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros host the Colorado Rockies on August 28, 2025, the stakes aren’t high for the Rockies, who have significantly struggled this season with a record of 38-95. The Astros, however, maintain a solid standing with a record of 73-60, showcasing their ability to compete effectively, currently sitting in playoff contention.

In their last matchup, the Astros delivered a commanding 4-0 victory, which solidified their advantage in this Interleague series. The Astros will send Jason Alexander to the mound, who is coming off a decent outing on August 21, where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 5 innings. His 4-1 record and average ERA of 4.59 suggest he could perform capably, especially facing a Rockies lineup that ranks as the 27th best in MLB.

On the opposing side, the Rockies will counter with Kyle Freeland, who has not had a favorable season, evident in his 3-13 record and high ERA of 5.31. Freeland’s last start was particularly troubling, as he surrendered 5 earned runs over 5 innings. His struggles might continue against a potent Astros offense that ranks 6th in team batting average and boasts the league’s 13th best overall offensive performance.

Betting markets favor the Astros heavily with a moneyline of -235, reflecting a high implied team total of 5.10 runs. Meanwhile, the Rockies, with their meager performance this season, face a low implied team total of 3.40 runs. As the Astros aim to capitalize on their home advantage and solid offensive output, this matchup presents a clear disparity in form and current capability, making the Astros the likely victors in this encounter.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Freeland to throw 85 pitches in today’s game (8th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Ezequiel Tovar is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Braxton Fulford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Today, Braxton Fulford is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39% rate (87th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jason Alexander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Jason Alexander will have the handedness advantage over 7 opposing batters in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Cesar Salazar – Over/Under Total Bases
  Cesar Salazar is likely to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Today’s version of the Astros projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .313 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .326 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 123 games (+13.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 74 of their last 129 games (+12.45 Units / 8% ROI)
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Cam Smith has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.50 Units / 51% ROI)