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Top Player Prop Picks for Rays vs Guardians – September 15, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays logo

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Cleveland Guardians

+110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)
-130

The Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays are set to face off in a crucial matchup on September 15, 2024, at Progressive Field. With the Guardians sporting an impressive record of 85-64, they are in a strong position as they look to solidify their place in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Rays sit at 73-76, having had a season that can be described as average. This game marks the fourth meeting in their series, adding an extra layer of intensity to the matchup.

In their last game, the Guardians showcased their offensive potential but fell short, highlighting the need to bounce back against a struggling Rays team. The Guardians are projected to start Ben Lively, a right-handed pitcher with a Win/Loss record of 11-9 and an ERA of 4.01. While Lively ranks as the 209th best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball, his strength lies in facing a Rays offense that has struggled to make consistent contact, ranking 5th in the league for most strikeouts.

On the other side, the Rays will send out Jeffrey Springs, a left-handed pitcher. Despite the Guardians’ offensive inconsistency, they have ranked 16th best in the league, performing slightly better than the Rays’ dismal 26th ranking.

Interestingly, projections suggest that the Guardians may outperform their implied win probability of 56%, as they aim to capitalize on the Rays’ offensive struggles and Lively’s ability to manage fly balls effectively against a power-deficient lineup. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, bettors looking for value may find the Guardians a safer bet, especially given their superior bullpen ranked 4th in the league.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

  • Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
    Taj Bradley’s change-up rate has increased by 13.4% from last season to this one (13.9% to 27.3%) .
    Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
  • Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
    Ben Rortvedt’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 86.1-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 79.6-mph in the last two weeks.
    Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
  • Tampa Bay has performed as the #30 squad in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (40.7% rate this year).
    Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

  • Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-130)
    Out of all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.
    Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
  • Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
    Jose Ramirez is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#2-best on the slate today).
    Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
  • Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
    The Cleveland Guardians bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
    Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

  • Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
    The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games (+9.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
    The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 away games (+12.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+110)
    Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 27 games (+7.35 Units / 25% ROI)
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