Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
(-110/-110)-120
As the Baltimore Orioles visit Fenway Park on September 9, 2024, they face off against the Boston Red Sox in the first game of a crucial series for both teams. The Orioles, currently sitting at 82-62, are having a strong season and hold a significant advantage in the standings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, with a record of 72-71, are having an average season and are looking to improve their position.
In their last outing, the Orioles played well, but the Red Sox will be looking to bounce back as they haven’t played since their last game. This matchup features two contrasting pitchers: Brayan Bello for the Red Sox and Cade Povich for the Orioles. Bello is ranked as the 53rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, while Povich has struggled, earning a reputation as a low-strikeout pitcher with a 5.76 ERA.
Bello has been a high-groundball pitcher this season, with a 52% groundball rate, which could play in his favor against the Orioles’ powerful offense that leads the league with 157 home runs. Conversely, Povich’s low strikeout rate may be concerning against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts. The Red Sox offense is ranked 6th overall in MLB, showcasing strong batting and power, while the Orioles rank 4th in terms of offensive performance.
Betting markets project a close contest, with the Red Sox having a moneyline of -120 and an implied team total of 4.86 runs. The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for offensive production. Given the Red Sox’s strong offensive ranking and Bello’s favorable groundball tendencies, they may have the edge in this matchup, despite their average season thus far.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)Cade Povich has been unlucky this year, compiling a 5.76 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.53 — a 1.23 gap.Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Extreme groundball bats like Anthony Santander generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Brayan Bello’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2117 rpm) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (2036 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Trevor Story is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Boston Red Sox have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ceddanne Rafaela, Romy Gonzalez, Tyler O’Neill, Trevor Story).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-190)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 75 of their last 140 games (+16.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 19 games at home (+15.65 Units / 35% ROI)