Top Player Prop Picks for D-Backs vs Rockies – August 15, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Colorado Rockies

On August 15, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field, kicking off the second game of their series. The Diamondbacks triumphed in yesterday’s matchup, further asserting their position in the National League West. As both teams vie for a stronger finish this season, the Rockies are struggling mightily, holding a dismal record of 32-89. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are sitting at an average 60-62, but still have the firepower to challenge for a Wild Card spot.

Tanner Gordon is projected to take the mound for the Rockies, looking to improve on his troubling record of 2-5 and an abysmal ERA of 8.37. With a Power Ranking placing him as the 280th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, Gordon’s struggles are well-documented. His ability to limit walks (5.0 BB%) could serve him well against a high-walk Diamondbacks offense. However, he is projected to allow an average of 3.6 earned runs across 4.7 innings, which could prove costly for Colorado.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt, with a 12-7 record and an ERA of 5.03, will look to capitalize on his matchup against a Rockies offense ranked 25th in MLB. With the Rockies striking out at the 2nd highest rate in the league, Pfaadt’s low strikeout rate (18.7 K%) may not be an issue. The projections suggest he could pitch around 5.3 innings while allowing 3.5 earned runs, which might still be enough given the Rockies’ offensive struggles.

As for the betting lines, the Rockies are substantial underdogs with a moneyline of +160, while the Diamondbacks are favored at -185. With a high game total of 12.0 runs, expectations are set for a potentially explosive offensive display, particularly from the Diamondbacks, who boast the 4th best offense in MLB.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has used his off-speed and breaking balls 6.6% more often this season (51%) than he did last season (44.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  In terms of his batting average, Blaze Alexander has been lucky since the start of last season. His .253 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .214.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Arizona Diamondbacks will score 7.11 runs on average in this game: the most of all teams in action today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tanner Gordon – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Out of all SPs, Tanner Gordon’s fastball velocity of 91.3 mph grades out in the 22nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Mickey Moniak has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Compared to their .317 overall projected rate, the .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup significantly a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 69 of their last 116 games (+15.27 Units / 11% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 50 of their last 91 games (+15.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Mickey Moniak has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.75 Units / 29% ROI)