Top Player Prop Picks for Braves vs Padres – March 30, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres host the Atlanta Braves on March 30, 2025, fans are buzzing with anticipation. The Padres, riding high with a perfect 3-0 record, are looking to extend their early-season momentum. Yesterday, the Padres showcased their prowess with a convincing victory, while the Braves are still searching for their first win, currently sitting at 0-3 after a disappointing start to the season.

In this matchup, the Padres are projected to send Nick Pivetta to the mound, who has made a strong case for himself as an above-average starter, ranking as the 86th best pitcher in MLB. Pivetta’s average projections paint a favorable picture: he is expected to pitch 5.0 innings, allow just 2.2 earned runs, and notch 6.0 strikeouts. However, he does have some concerning projections, notably allowing 4.0 hits and 1.5 walks, which could provide opportunities for the Braves’ struggling offense.

On the other side, Atlanta will counter with AJ Smith-Shawver, who has struggled mightily this season and is among the worst pitchers ranked in the league. His projections are far from impressive, expecting him to pitch only 4.5 innings while allowing nearly 2.4 earned runs and striking out a mere 3.7 batters. The Braves will need a strong performance from Smith-Shawver if they hope to overcome their early-season woes.

The projected run total for this game is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially close contest. Betting markets suggest the Padres hold a slight edge with a moneyline of -125, while the Braves are at +105, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding both teams. With the Padres looking to build on their strong start and the Braves desperate for a turnaround, this matchup promises to be a compelling showdown at Petco Park.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• AJ Smith-Shawver – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  AJ Smith-Shawver’s 96-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 92nd percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Marcell Ozuna’s 98.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced standard to evaluate power) is in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Nick Pivetta to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.283) may lead us to conclude that Jake Cronenworth has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .241 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The San Diego Padres have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-130)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 89 games (+18.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 96 of their last 156 games (+35.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jason Heyward – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+185/-245)
  Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)