Top Player Prop Picks for Braves vs Nationals – September 10, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on September 10, 2024, both teams come off tough losses in their previous games, with the Braves falling to the Cincinnati Reds, 1-0, and the Nationals losing to the Pittsburgh Pirates, 7-3. With the Nationals currently sitting at 64-79 and the Braves at 78-66, this National League East matchup has significant implications, as the Braves remain in contention for a playoff spot, while the Nationals are looking to salvage a disappointing season.

Projected starters MacKenzie Gore and Reynaldo Lopez offer contrasting narratives on the mound. Gore, a left-hander with an average ERA of 4.32, has had an unlucky season, as indicated by his 3.56 FIP, suggesting he may perform better than his record of 8-11. In his last outing, he showcased his potential by going six innings, allowing only one earned run while striking out nine batters. However, he faces a daunting Braves lineup that ranks 5th in the league in home runs.

On the other hand, Lopez, a right-handed pitcher with an impressive ERA of 2.04, is having a stellar season and ranks as the 70th best starting pitcher in MLB. His last start saw him dominate with 11 strikeouts over six innings. Yet, his 3.59 xFIP indicates he might be riding a bit of luck.

The Nationals’ offense has struggled overall, ranking 22nd in MLB, but has shown flashes of potential with the recent hot bat of Keibert Ruiz, who has a .429 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Braves’ best hitter, Marcell Ozuna, has solidified his status with 37 home runs this season.

The projections indicate a close contest, with the Nationals having an implied team total of 3.77 runs compared to the Braves’ 4.23. However, THE BAT X projects the Nationals to score 4.18 runs on average, suggesting they could exceed expectations in this matchup.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  The Washington Nationals have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Reynaldo Lopez in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna’s true offensive ability to be a .347, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .051 disparity between that mark and his actual .398 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  MacKenzie Gore’s fastball velocity has risen 1.1 mph this year (95.5 mph) over where it was last year (94.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Dylan Crews is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Gallo, Jose Tena, James Wood).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 78 of their last 140 games (+5.88 Units / 3% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 113 games (+25.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-265)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 36 games (+11.45 Units / 18% ROI)