Top Player Prop Picks for Braves vs Angels – August 16, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Atlanta Braves visit Angel Stadium to face the Los Angeles Angels on August 16, 2024, both teams are looking to bounce back after disappointing performances in their last outings. The Braves were blanked by the San Francisco Giants in a 6-0 loss, while the Angels fell to the Toronto Blue Jays 9-2. With the Braves holding a 64-57 record, they are in a solid position compared to the Angels, who sit at 52-69 and have struggled throughout the season.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Jose Soriano for the Angels and Spencer Schwellenbach for the Braves. Soriano, ranked 52nd among starting pitchers, has had a decent year with a 3.36 ERA, but his advanced metrics suggest he may have been fortunate so far. Schwellenbach, on the other hand, is performing at a higher level, ranking 28th with a 3.95 ERA, indicating he might be due for an even better performance given his underlying numbers.

The Angels’ offense has been underwhelming, ranking 24th in the league, while the Braves’ offense sits in a more favorable 13th position. Despite this, projections suggest that the Angels could score around 4.17 runs, which is slightly better than their implied team total of 3.58 runs. This discrepancy indicates potential betting value on the Angels, especially considering that THE BAT X projects a closer game than the betting lines suggest.

Zach Neto has been the Angels’ standout hitter, while Marcell Ozuna leads the Braves. With both teams eager to turn things around, fans can expect an interesting clash that could defy the odds.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Spencer Schwellenbach’s fastball velocity of 95.3 mph is in the 91st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Sean Murphy has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Atlanta Braves offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Jose Soriano is an extreme groundball pitcher (53.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #7 HR venue in MLB — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Mickey Moniak has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph to 100.1-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 38 games at home (+6.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 101 games (+24.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 50 games (+9.25 Units / 16% ROI)