Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
(-110/-110)+115
In an American League matchup devoid of postseason implications, the Chicago White Sox will host the Los Angeles Angels at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 26, 2024. While both teams have struggled this season, with the White Sox holding a dismal 38-120 record and the Angels not faring much better at 63-95, they each come off contrasting performances from yesterday’s game. The White Sox bested the Angels 4-3, providing a rare bright spot in an otherwise challenging year.
The pitching duel features Chris Flexen for the White Sox and Tyler Anderson for the Angels. Flexen, a right-hander with a 5.15 ERA, has been one of the league’s weaker starters, as evidenced by his 2-15 record. Despite his struggles, he managed to go five innings in his last start, but allowed four earned runs. His projected performance today suggests an average outing with 5.3 innings pitched and 2.8 earned runs allowed.
On the mound for Los Angeles, Tyler Anderson, a lefty, presents a bit more hope for the Angels. Anderson’s 3.70 ERA is respectable, but his peripheral stats indicate fortune has been on his side. Even with a win-loss record of 10-14, he’s projected to have a decent outing against the White Sox’s anemic offense, which ranks 30th in MLB in both batting average and home runs.
The Angels hold a slight edge according to betting markets, with an implied win probability of 55%, while the projections, courtesy of the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, give them a similar edge at 54%. Despite both teams’ offensive struggles, the Angels’ lineup, ranked 26th, still holds a marginal advantage over Chicago.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Due to his large reverse platoon split, Tyler Anderson will hold the advantage going up against 7 batters in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side today.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Brandon Drury – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Brandon Drury has been unlucky this year, posting a .220 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .299 — a .079 deviation.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Mickey Moniak pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Chris Flexen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+145/-190)Out of all SPs, Chris Flexen’s fastball velocity of 90.7 mph grades out in the 10th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Lenyn Sosa has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+115)The weakest projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Chicago White Sox.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 86 games (+5.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Zach Neto has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 39 games (+11.65 Units / 28% ROI)