Top Player Prop Picks for Angels vs Royals – September 02, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

Kansas City Royals

On September 2, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Los Angeles Angels at Kauffman Stadium in what marks the first game of their series. The Royals currently sit at 70-67, showcasing an average season. In contrast, the Angels are struggling at 64-73, positioning them below average. Both teams are coming off tough losses, with the Royals falling 5-0 and the Angels losing 8-3 in their last outings.

Kansas City’s Michael Lorenzen is projected to take the mound, bringing a 5-8 record and an ERA of 4.62 this season. While Lorenzen’s stats paint him as one of the 186th best starting pitchers in MLB out of approximately 350, his recent performance has been uneventful, having allowed 4 earned runs, 7 hits, and 1 walk in 5 innings during his last start. The projections suggest he could pitch around 5.2 innings today, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs and striking out about 5.5 batters.

Opposing Lorenzen will be Mitch Farris, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled as well. With a bad strikeout projection of 3.9 batters and a projected 3.0 earned runs, Farris poses a challenge for the Angels. His last outing wasn’t impressive either, and his overall placement in the rankings suggests he is among the worst pitchers in the league.

The Royals offense ranks 23rd in MLB, while the Angels sit at 21st, making both lineups less than intimidating. However, the Royals are favored with a -160 moneyline and an implied team total of 4.98 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize against Farris. The Game Total is high at 9.0 runs, suggesting a potentially explosive match-up given the offensive circumstances.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Luis Rengifo is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Today’s version of the Angels projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .315 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .326 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Michael Lorenzen is expected to tally an average of 5.5 strikeouts in this outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Maikel Garcia has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.8-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 91.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kansas City Royals bats jointly rank 26th- in the majors for power this year when using their 7.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 69 games at home (+23.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 63 away games (+15.39 Units / 20% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+145/-185)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)