Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees
(-115/-105)-200
As the New York Yankees gear up to host the Kansas City Royals on October 5, 2024, at Yankee Stadium, this American League Division Series matchup presents an intriguing pitching duel. The Yankees, with a strong 64% implied win probability, are looking to leverage their home-field advantage and powerful offense, ranked 3rd overall and 1st in home runs this season. Gerrit Cole will take the mound for New York, bringing his impressive 3.41 ERA and a solid 8-5 record. Despite his great ERA, Cole’s 3.99 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate this season, hinting at potential challenges ahead.
The Royals, on the other hand, are the underdogs with a 36% implied win probability. They will counter with Michael Wacha, who boasts a slightly better ERA of 3.35, yet his 4.14 xFIP indicates similar luck as Cole’s. Wacha’s high-flyball tendencies could be exploited by the Yankees’ home run-heavy lineup, potentially turning flyballs into runs.
The Yankees’ offensive prowess, especially their ability to draw walks, will be tested against Wacha’s low-walk rate. Although the Royals’ bullpen ranks 9th, slightly better than the Yankees’ 12th, the Yankees’ offensive firepower might prove too much for Kansas City to handle.
Michael Massey has been a bright spot for the Royals, hitting .333 with a 1.051 OPS over the last week, but the Yankees’ overall depth and Gerrit Cole’s ability to limit walks and earned runs could be decisive. As the Yankees aim to assert their postseason dominance, the Royals will need to capitalize on any opportunities and rely on Wacha to keep the game close.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Michael Massey is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of New York (#2-worst of all teams today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Michael Massey pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-200)The New York Yankees projected lineup ranks as the 2nd-best of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 74 of their last 130 games (+17.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+12.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+120)Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.85 Units / 35% ROI)