Tampa Bay Rays
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-110/-110)-145
The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Tampa Bay Rays on April 23, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. The Diamondbacks are currently enjoying a strong season with a 14-9 record, while the Rays are struggling at 9-14. In their previous game, the Diamondbacks secured a win, continuing their momentum as they aim to solidify their position in the standings.
Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez is projected to take the mound, bringing a solid reputation as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.09, Rodriguez’s xFIP of 2.46 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and is likely to improve. He is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs. However, he does have concerns with allowing 5.3 hits and 1.7 walks on average, which could present opportunities for the Rays.
On the other side, Tampa Bay’s Taj Bradley is projected as the 65th best starter in MLB. Although he has a better record at 2-1, his ERA of 5.24 indicates struggles on the mound. With a high flyball rate and an average of 5.2 hits allowed, he faces a powerful Diamondbacks offense that ranks 3rd in MLB. This lineup has already hit 32 home runs this season, and their ability to capitalize on Bradley’s mistakes could be a decisive factor.
The Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of 4.85 runs, reflecting confidence in their offense. Given the projections and the recent performances, Arizona appears well-positioned to extend their winning streak against a struggling Rays team.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)Out of all SPs, Taj Bradley’s fastball velocity of 96.1 mph grades out in the 94th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Danny Jansen is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#2-best on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Tampa Bay’s 89.8-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the game: #9 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)Eduardo Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Gabriel Moreno has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last year has dropped off to 0% this season.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Josh Naylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-145)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 23 games (+2.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.80 Units / 35% ROI)