Tampa Bay Rays
Arizona Diamondbacks
(+100/-120)-160
On April 23, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Tampa Bay Rays at Chase Field for the second game in their interleague series. The Diamondbacks are coming off a solid victory, having won their last game against the Rays 5-1. With a record of 14-9, Arizona is enjoying a strong season, while Tampa Bay’s struggles continue as they sit at 9-14.
The Diamondbacks’ Eduardo Rodriguez is projected to take the mound, a left-handed pitcher ranked 36th among starting pitchers in Major League Baseball according to the leading MLB projection system. Rodriguez has had a rocky start, holding a 1-2 record with a 4.09 ERA; however, his advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky and could be due for positive regression. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings today, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs.
On the other side, the Rays will send Taj Bradley to the hill. While he ranks 67th among starting pitchers, Bradley has been inconsistent with a 2-1 record and a troubling 5.24 ERA. His high walk rate (10.5 BB%) could be exploited by the Diamondbacks, who rank 3rd in MLB for drawing walks. This matchup may favor Arizona’s potent offense, which is the 3rd best in the league this season, featuring a strong batting average and home run output.
Given Rodriguez’s potential for improvement and the Diamondbacks’ notable offensive prowess, they stand as strong betting favorites in this contest, currently sporting a moneyline of -165 with an implied team total of 5.02 runs. The Rays, struggling to find their footing, have a moneyline of +145 and a projected team total of 3.98 runs, further accentuating the challenges they face today. Expect a competitive game as both teams seek to find their rhythm in this early-season showdown.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Out of all SPs, Taj Bradley’s fastball velocity of 96.1 mph grades out in the 94th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Danny Jansen is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#2-best on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Tampa Bay’s 89.8-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the game: #9 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)Eduardo Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Pavin Smith has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 14.7% rate last season to 22.9% this season.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Josh Naylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-160)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 23 games (+2.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- Curtis Mead – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)Curtis Mead has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 42% ROI)