Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Rangers vs Astros – Friday, July 12th, 2024

Texas Rangers

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will host the Texas Rangers on July 12, 2024, at Minute Maid Park in an American League West matchup. The Astros, with a 49-44 record, are having an above-average season and looking to solidify their standing in the division. The Rangers, on the other hand, are struggling with a 44-49 record and are currently having a below-average season.

Hunter Brown will take the mound for the Astros. The right-hander has a 6-6 record through 17 starts with an ERA of 4.48###101. However, his xFIP of 3.66 suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Brown is ranked as the 42nd best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, indicating he’s a solid presence on the mound. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings today, with 2.3 earned runs and 5.5 strikeouts, which are good projections.

For the Rangers, Andrew Heaney will get the start. The left-hander has a 3-9 record with a respectable ERA of 3.80 this season. Despite his good ERA, Heaney is projected to pitch only 5.0 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, which is below average. His strikeout projection of 4.5 and hits allowed projection of 5.1 are also below average, reflecting his struggles this season.

Offensively, the Astros have the edge. They rank 6th in MLB in terms of overall offense, 1st in team batting average, and 9th in home runs. The Rangers, meanwhile, rank 16th overall, 17th in batting average, and 15th in home runs, indicating a more average offensive output. Joey Loperfido has been the Astros’ best hitter over the last week, boasting a .357 batting average and a 1.269 OPS. For the Rangers, Corey Seager has been on fire, hitting .333 with a 1.116 OPS over his last six games.

The Astros also have a slight edge in the bullpen with a 13th ranking compared to the Rangers’ 15th. Given the Astros’ stronger overall offense and slightly better bullpen, they are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, implying a 58% chance of winning. The Rangers are underdogs at +130 with a 42% implied win probability. The projected game total is 8.0 runs, indicating a balanced matchup in terms of scoring.

With both teams looking to make a statement in this divisional series opener, the Astros seem to have the upper hand, particularly with their offensive firepower and Hunter Brown’s potential for a strong outing.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this season (90.8 mph) below where it was last year (91.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Nathaniel Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Hunter Brown is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #6 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Jon Singleton is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 29 games (+13.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 78 games (+12.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510/-900)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 23 games at home (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)