Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Padres vs D-Backs – Monday, August 4th, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On August 4, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres at Chase Field, kicking off a series with both teams looking to make a statement. The Diamondbacks sit with a record of 53-59, struggling through a below-average season, while the Padres are faring significantly better at 62-50. Arizona’s offense has been a bright spot, ranking as the 4th best in MLB, but their overall performance has been inconsistent.

In their latest outing, the Diamondbacks will look to bounce back after a tough loss against the Padres, where they struggled to execute offensively. Brandon Pfaadt, projected to start for Arizona, has had an up-and-down season, posting a 5.11 ERA. The statistics show he may have been unlucky, as his 4.02 xFIP indicates potential for improvement. Pfaadt’s ability to pitch just 5.4 innings while allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs today could be a concern against a Padres lineup that has the potential to exploit his weaknesses.

Meanwhile, San Diego’s JP Sears, who has also struggled with a 4.95 ERA, faces a powerful D-Backs offense that has belted 153 home runs this season, ranking 6th overall. However, Sears has shown control, with a low walk rate at 6.1%, which may hinder the Diamondbacks’ ability to draw walks, a strength of their offense.

The game total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for an offensive showdown, especially given Arizona’s high implied team total of 4.43 runs compared to San Diego’s 5.07 runs. Bettors should keep an eye on how these pitching matchups unfold, particularly with the Diamondbacks as an underdog, presenting an opportunity for a potential upset.

San Diego Padres Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  JP Sears’s slider utilization has risen by 5.6% from last season to this one (33.8% to 39.4%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Manny Machado has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.9-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 93-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.6% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Among all SPs, Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball spin rate of 2567 rpm grades out in the 99th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme groundball bats like Blaze Alexander tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like JP Sears.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games at home (+10.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 68 games (+13.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+5.95 Units / 23% ROI)