Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Mets vs Nationals – Tuesday, August 19th, 2025

New York Mets

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals and the New York Mets will clash on August 19, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series at Nationals Park. The Nationals, currently sitting at 50-74, are struggling this season and have been eliminated from contention in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Mets are in a much more favorable position with a record of 66-58, sitting in the playoff hunt.

In their last outing, the Mets showcased their offensive firepower, with their best hitter going 14-for-25 over the past week, including three home runs and seven RBIs. This performance underscores the Mets’ strength as they face a Nationals pitching staff that has underperformed, particularly with Jake Irvin set to start. Irvin, ranked as the 239th best starting pitcher in MLB, has a Win/Loss record of 8-7 and an ERA of 5.14, indicating a tough matchup against a potent Mets lineup.

David Peterson, projected to start for the Mets, has been an average pitcher this season but boasts a solid ERA of 3.30. His ability to induce ground balls (56% GB rate) could bode well against a Nationals offense that ranks 23rd in MLB, struggling particularly with power as they sit 26th in home runs.

The projections suggest that the Nationals will have an average team total of 3.78 runs, while the Mets are expected to score significantly more, with an implied total of 5.22 runs. Given the current odds and the Nationals’ challenges, the Mets enter this matchup as strong favorites. However, with Irvin’s average innings pitched projection and the Nationals’ recent performance, there could be opportunities for unexpected outcomes in this early series contest.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  David Peterson’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this year (90.5 mph) below where it was last season (91.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jeff McNeil has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 5.3% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-195)
  The New York Mets projected lineup grades out as the 3rd-best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Recording 92 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Jake Irvin places him the 79th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  James Wood has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99-mph average to last year’s 96.6-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Washington’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the game: #21 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games (+11.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 away games (+6.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-145)
  Paul DeJong has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)