Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Guardians vs Cubs – Thursday, July 3rd, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on July 3, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting places in the standings. The Cubs are enjoying a strong season with a record of 51-35, positioning them as serious contenders, while the Guardians are struggling at 40-44, reflecting a below-average campaign. After a hard-fought matchup yesterday, the Cubs emerged victorious, further solidifying their advantage in this series.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start Cade Horton, a right-handed pitcher who has had an uneven year with a 4.80 ERA and a 3-2 record over 9 starts. His advanced-stat Power Ranking places him as the 166th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he could be vulnerable against a patient lineup like the Cubs, which ranks 6th in the league for drawing walks. Horton typically pitches only 4.8 innings per game, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, and struggles with control, averaging 1.5 walks per outing.

Opposing him is Luis Ortiz of the Guardians, also a right-hander, whose season stats reflect an average pitcher with a 4.36 ERA and a 4-9 record across 16 starts. The projections indicate that Ortiz is likely to pitch longer, averaging 5.2 innings, but he too faces challenges with a high walk rate of 11.0%.

Offensively, the Cubs boast the 4th best offense in MLB, complemented by a powerful batting average that ranks 3rd in the league. In contrast, the Guardians sit in 26th place in offensive rankings, emphasizing their struggles at the plate. Given these factors, the Cubs’ potent lineup should give them an upper hand as they look to secure another win in this interleague series.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Luis L. Ortiz’s cutter rate has fallen by 7.9% from last season to this one (20% to 12.1%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Kyle Manzardo is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-150)
  Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Michael Busch has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-150)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 79 games (+10.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 80 games (+10.69 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+8.25 Units / 138% ROI)