Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Giants vs Cardinals – Friday, September 5th, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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St. Louis Cardinals

On September 5, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the San Francisco Giants at Busch Stadium in what marks the opening game of their series. Both teams are having average seasons, with the Cardinals sitting at 70-71 and the Giants at 71-69. This matchup is crucial as neither team is in contention for the division title, but both are looking to improve their standing as the season winds down.

Michael McGreevy is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals, boasting a solid 6-2 record and an ERA of 4.17, which is above average. The advanced-stat Power Rankings have him rated as the 69th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is performing well relative to his peers. McGreevy’s ability to limit walks (3.9 BB%) will be key against a Giants offense that ranks 6th in walks drawn, potentially neutralizing one of their strengths.

On the other hand, Carson Seymour is expected to start for the Giants. His numbers tell a different story, as he has struggled with a 0-2 record and a 4.74 ERA, and he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB according to the projections. Seymour’s high groundball rate (51% GB%) could play into the Cardinals’ hands, given their lack of power this season, ranking 25th in home runs.

In their last game, the Cardinals’ best hitter has been on a roll, recording 6 hits and 6 runs over the past week, with a stellar 1.292 OPS. This offensive momentum could help St. Louis capitalize on Seymour’s vulnerabilities. The Game Total is set at a moderate 8.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a competitive matchup. With the Cardinals’ bullpen ranked 11th and the Giants’ at 27th, St. Louis may have the edge late in the game, making them a team to watch as they aim for a crucial win.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Carson Seymour – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  In his last outing, Carson Seymour wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to post 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Jung Hoo Lee has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Carson Seymour – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Michael McGreevy (49.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 GB hitters in San Francisco’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ivan Herrera has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.8-mph average to last season’s 91.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 76 games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 20 away games (+11.95 Units / 53% ROI)
• Drew Gilbert – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)
  Drew Gilbert has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+16.00 Units / 200% ROI)