Tigers vs Reds Picks and Odds – July 07, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Detroit Tigers at Great American Ball Park on July 7, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of challenging seasons. The Reds, with a 42-47 record, continue to struggle following their July 6 loss to the Tigers, a game in which they were favored but fell 5-3. Conversely, the Tigers, now 41-48, capitalized on their underdog status in that matchup and will look to carry that momentum into today’s game.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start Graham Ashcraft, a right-handed pitcher whose performance has been spotty this season. Ashcraft holds a 5-4 record with a concerning 5.45 ERA. Despite these numbers, his 4.38 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky and could see improvement. In his last outing, Ashcraft had an uneventful start, allowing 3 earned runs over 5 innings. He is expected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.8 hits, 1.6 walks, and striking out 4.4 batters on average.

The Tigers will counter with their ace, Tarik Skubal, the #1 ranked starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Skubal has been dominant this season with a 9-3 record and a stellar 2.45 ERA. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings today, allowing just 2.1 earned runs, 4.7 hits, 1.5 walks, and striking out 7.1 batters on average. His last start saw him deliver 6 solid innings, giving up 3 earned runs while fanning 7 batters.

Both offenses have struggled this season, with the Reds ranking 23rd and the Tigers 27th. However, Cincinnati boasts the league’s best stolen base numbers. Recent performances have seen Spencer Steer and Colt Keith emerge as key contributors for their respective teams. Steer has been on a power surge for the Reds, while Keith has provided a consistent bat for the Tigers.

Betting odds have the Tigers as a -140 favorite, with an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also gives Detroit a 56% chance to win, making them a strong favorite. With an implied team total of 4.54 runs for the Tigers, watchers could see some fireworks from Skubal’s support crew. On the other side, the Reds have an implied total of 3.96 runs and will need their offense to step up to reverse their fortunes. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, projecting an average scoring affair.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Tarik Skubal’s 96.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph increase from last season’s 95-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Colt Keith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Jake Rogers, the Tigers’s expected catcher in today’s game, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  Graham Ashcraft is an extreme groundball pitcher (49% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #2 HR venue among all stadiums — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Jeimer Candelario’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 86.8-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 82.3-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games at home (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+10.35 Units / 20% ROI)