Detroit Tigers
Chicago Cubs
(-120/+100)-145
As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on August 20, 2024, both teams find themselves in a neck-and-neck race in the standings, each sitting at 61-64. This Interleague matchup marks the first of the series, with both teams showing signs of average performance this season. The Cubs, currently ranked 21st in offensive talent, recently suffered a tough loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, falling 1-0 just two days ago. Meanwhile, the Tigers come off a win against the New York Yankees, edging them 3-2, though they rank 26th in offensive performance.
Starting for the Cubs is Javier Assad, who has a record of 5-3 this season and a solid ERA of 3.19. However, his xFIP of 4.72 suggests he may have had some luck on his side this year. Assad projects to pitch an average of 5.2 innings today, allowing 2.2 earned runs while striking out 5.1 batters. While his performance could be a concern, the projections favor the Cubs, with Assad taking on a struggling Tigers lineup that ranks poorly in various offensive metrics.
On the mound for the Tigers is Alex Faedo, who has had brief outings, including a start where he pitched only 1 inning and allowed 1 earned run, but walked four batters. His high walk rate could be a vulnerability that the Cubs look to exploit, especially given their ability to draw walks, ranking among the higher teams in that category.
Overall, with advanced-stat Power Rankings suggesting the Cubs’ bullpen is a glaring weakness at 26th, and the Tigers holding a relatively stronger bullpen at 14th, this matchup promises to be closely contested. The Cubs’ best hitter, Ian Happ, will be pivotal in this game as they hope to capitalize on Faedo’s inconsistency and secure a needed win. The game total stands at a low 7.5 runs, highlighting potential challenges for scoring, yet the Cubs enter as slight favorites with a moneyline of -145.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Detroit Tigers – 2H MoneylineThe Detroit Tigers bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 108 games (+9.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-170)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 32 games (+12.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+8.30 Units / 138% ROI)