Tigers vs Blue Jays Prediction and Game Breakdown – Saturday July 20, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Detroit Tigers at Rogers Centre on July 20, 2024, in the second game of their series. On July 19, the Blue Jays narrowly lost to the Tigers in a 5-4 contest, despite holding a slight edge in pre-game odds. This defeat marks another hit for Toronto in what’s been a below-average season for them, holding a 44-53 record. On the flip side, the Tigers, with a 48-50 record, are having an average season and look to build on their recent success.

On the mound for Toronto is left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who, despite an unimpressive 4-8 record and a 4.42 ERA, has been notably unlucky. His 3.35 xFIP suggests he’s due for better results. Kikuchi’s projections indicate he’ll pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs while striking out 6.2 batters. His last start was a tough one, where he allowed 7 earned runs over 5 innings, signaling he’ll be eager to bounce back.

Starting for the Tigers is Reese Olson, a right-hander with a 4-8 record and a solid 3.30 ERA. However, his 3.81 SIERA suggests some luck has been on his side, and he might be due for a regression. Olson’s projections show him pitching about 5.3 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and striking out 4.8 batters. He has been a consistent performer, as seen in his last outing with 3 earned runs over 6 innings.

Offensively, both teams have struggled this season, with the Blue Jays ranking 22nd in overall performance and the Tigers at 25th. Toronto’s best hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., carries a strong .288 average with 15 home runs and a .819 OPS. Meanwhile, Riley Greene leads the Tigers with a .271 average and 17 home runs, boasting a .863 OPS.

The bullpen matchups also show a slight edge for Detroit, ranked 16th, compared to Toronto’s 21st. Given these dynamics, the Blue Jays look to leverage their slight home-field advantage and reverse their recent misfortunes. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Toronto is favored with a projected win probability of 58%, which is notably higher than the implied 52% from the betting markets, suggesting potential value in backing the Blue Jays.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Reese Olson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Reese Olson has used his change-up 7.2% more often this year (22.4%) than he did last year (15.2%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Wenceel Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Wenceel Perez’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 87.4-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 80-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Reese Olson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Jake Rogers, the Tigers’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Yusei Kikuchi’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph grades out in the 82nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, George Springer has experienced some negative variance this year. His .300 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .361.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+11.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-195)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.40 Units / 30% ROI)