Tigers vs Angels Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 5/03/2025

Detroit Tigers

@

Los Angeles Angels

On May 3, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Detroit Tigers at Angel Stadium in the third game of their series. The Angels, currently struggling with a record of 12-19, are looking to bounce back after falling to the Tigers 9-1 in their last matchup. Meanwhile, the Tigers are riding the momentum of their strong season, sitting at 21-12 and boasting one of the best offenses in MLB, ranking 7th overall.

Projected starters Kyle Hendricks and Jack Flaherty present an intriguing pitching matchup. Hendricks, ranked 268th among starting pitchers, has had a rocky 2025 season with a 0-3 record and a dismal 6.65 ERA. In his last outing, he allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings. Conversely, Flaherty, ranked 56th, has a solid 3.34 ERA and has shown flashes of brilliance, although he struggled in his last start, giving up 4 earned runs over 5 innings.

The Angels’ offense, while featuring a potent home run count that ranks 5th in MLB, has struggled overall, sitting at 26th in offensive rankings and 29th in team batting average. This inconsistency could be a significant factor against the Tigers’ 7th-ranked offense that is hitting well and has a higher implied team total of 4.81 runs for today’s game compared to the Angels’ 3.69.

Despite the Angels’ current standing and poor performance lately, the projections suggest that they could outperform expectations given their power potential. With Flaherty’s tendency to allow fly balls, there’s a chance the Angels could capitalize on their long-ball advantage. However, it will require a marked improvement from Hendricks to keep the game competitive.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Jack Flaherty’s 92.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.1-mph decrease from last year’s 93.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  There has been a decrease in Colt Keith’s average exit velocity this season, from 87.8 mph last year to 84.5 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kerry Carpenter in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-165)
  Tallying 13.8 outs per GS this year on average, Kyle Hendricks ranks in the 22nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Typically, hitters like Taylor Ward who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jack Flaherty.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Los Angeles Angels have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 53% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-195)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Kyren Paris – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
  Kyren Paris has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.20 Units / 61% ROI)