Detroit Tigers
Seattle Mariners
(+100/-120)-200
As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face off against the Detroit Tigers on August 8, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of a tightly contested series. The Mariners, currently holding a record of 59-56, are having an average season, while the Tigers sit at 55-60, struggling to find their footing. In their last encounter on August 7, the Mariners fell to the Tigers 6-2, a game that highlighted the offensive challenges both teams have faced this season.
Seattle’s Bryan Woo, ranked as the 48th best starting pitcher in MLB, is expected to take the mound. Woo has been impressive this year with a Win/Loss record of 5-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.08. However, his 3.93 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, indicating a potential for regression. His last outing on August 2 showcased his talent, as he pitched a complete game shutout, allowing no earned runs while striking out six batters. Despite Woo’s strong individual performance, the Mariners’ offense, which ranks 27th in MLB, has struggled to provide consistent support.
On the other side, the Tigers will counter with Brenan Hanifee, who has had a challenging season. His projections indicate he may pitch poorly, averaging only 1.5 innings today while allowing 0.7 earned runs. With both offenses ranking poorly—Seattle at 30th in batting average and Detroit at 23rd—the projections suggest a low-scoring affair is likely, with a game total set at 7.5 runs.
THE BAT X projects the Mariners as solid favorites for this matchup, with Seattle’s implied team total of 4.34 runs reflecting their expected offensive output. Despite their recent struggles, they remain in a position to turn things around, especially with a pitcher of Woo’s caliber on the mound. The pressure is on both teams to make a statement as the series continues.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Zach McKinstry is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Matt Vierling – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)Matt Vierling has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Compared to average, Bryan Woo has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -14.1 fewer adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Justin Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Extreme groundball batters like Justin Turner usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brenan Hanifee.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 46 games at home (+12.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 80 games (+11.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-175)Luke Raley has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)