New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers
(+100/-120)-165
On April 8, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the New York Yankees at Comerica Park for the second game of their series. Both teams enter this matchup with a solid 6-4 record to start the season, showcasing their competitive edge in this American League clash. In their previous game, the Yankees outlasted the Tigers with a strong performance, adding pressure on Detroit to bounce back at home.
The matchup features the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal, who is expected to take the mound despite a rocky start to the season. Currently ranked as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB by the leading MLB projection system, Skubal carries an 0-2 record with a troubling 5.91 ERA. However, his 4.20 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky, and he projects to pitch 5.8 innings while allowing just 1.8 earned runs. The Tigers’ offense, ranked 7th best in MLB, has the potential to back him up, even though they struggle to hit home runs, ranking 29th league-wide.
On the other side, the Yankees will send out Carlos Carrasco, who has a 1-0 record but an alarming 7.36 ERA. Carrasco’s low walk rate could mitigate the Tigers’ patience at the plate, but he projects to last only 4.8 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs. With the Yankees’ offense ranked 1st in MLB and boasting the 3rd best batting average, they will look to capitalize on any mistakes from Skubal.
The Tigers are currently favored with a moneyline of -160, reflecting a 60% implied win probability, which may not fully capture their potential. Given their offensive capabilities and the projection that sees Skubal turn his season around, this matchup poses an interesting challenge for both teams as they vie for early-season positioning.
New York Yankees Insights
- Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)Carlos Carrasco has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 8.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Austin Wells’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 93.6-mph mark last season has lowered to 90.8-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- New York Yankees batters jointly rank in the league for power since the start of last season when using their 11% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Tarik Skubal’s slider usage has dropped by 5.1% from last season to this one (14.9% to 9.8%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Spencer Torkelson is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#3-worst of all teams today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)Zach McKinstry hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 2nd-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+125)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 78 games (+20.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 70 of their last 124 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3500)Ben Rice has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+7.80 Units / 111% ROI)