Team Stats and Prediction for Rockies vs Angels Matchup 7/30/24)

Colorado Rockies

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels face off against the Colorado Rockies on July 30, 2024, neither team finds themselves in a favorable position this season. The Angels sit at 46-60, struggling through a tough season, while the Rockies, with their 38-69 record, are faring even worse.

Griffin Canning gets the nod for the Angels. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Canning ranks as the 243rd best starting pitcher in the league out of approximately 350, a clear indicator of his challenges this season. With a 3-10 record and a lackluster 5.04 ERA###101, Canning has not been able to dominate on the mound. His projections for today’s game indicate that he will pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 5.9 batters, but also giving up 5.2 hits and 1.5 walks—both of which are concerning.

On the other side, Cal Quantrill will start for the Rockies. Quantrill’s 7-7 record and a 4.09 ERA might suggest competence at first glance, but his underlying metrics tell a different story. His 4.69 FIP highlights that he’s been fortunate this season and is likely to regress. Quantrill projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, striking out a below-average 4.4 batters, and giving up a dismal 5.8 hits and 1.7 walks.

Offensively, the Angels rank 24th overall, struggling particularly with a #22 team batting average and #20 in home runs but excelling in stolen bases, ranking 7th. In contrast, the Rockies have an average offense, ranking 16th overall, bolstered by being 12th in batting average and 10th in home runs but weakened by a low 23rd ranking in stolen bases.

The Angels’ Nolan Schanuel has been on a tear over the last week, posting a .438 batting average with a 1.453 OPS, 7 hits, 7 runs, 4 RBIs, and 2 home runs in six games. The Rockies’ Michael Toglia has also been hot, recording a .381 batting average, 1.197 OPS, 8 hits, 6 runs, 4 RBIs, and 2 home runs over the same span.

Given the Angels’ slight edge in projected win probability and their recent offensive spark, they might hold the upper hand in this Interleague matchup despite both teams’ struggles this season. Betting odds currently favor the Angels at -135, indicating that bookmakers see them as the more likely winner in this closely contested game.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Cal Quantrill has gone to his change-up 13.6% more often this season (36%) than he did last year (22.4%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Charlie Blackmon’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.4-mph mark last season has lowered to 84.4-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Compared to their .319 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup considerably a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Griffin Canning’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this year (92.9 mph) below where it was last year (94 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Colorado (#3-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+9.10 Units / 28% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 76 games (+5.00 Units / 6% ROI)
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Brendan Rodgers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.90 Units / 58% ROI)