Team Stats and Prediction for Reds vs Red Sox Matchup 6/30/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox gear up to face the Cincinnati Reds on June 30, 2025, they find themselves struggling with a record of 41-44 this season, marking a below-average campaign. Meanwhile, the Reds are in better form at 44-40, sitting firmly in the above-average category. Both teams are looking for momentum as they begin this interleague series after the Red Sox suffered a setback in their last game against the Reds, losing 5-3 on June 29.

On the mound, the Red Sox will start Garrett Crochet, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 5th in MLB Power Rankings. Crochet boasts an impressive 2.06 ERA and has enjoyed a solid year with a 7-4 record over 17 starts. His last outing was a gem, where he pitched 7 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out 10 batters, and only giving up 3 hits. However, projections suggest he may face some challenges today, as he’s expected to allow a high number of hits and walks.

Opposing him will be the Reds’ Chase Burns, a right-handed pitcher with a considerably higher ERA of 5.40. While Burns has only made one start this season, he is projected to pitch for an average of 5.1 innings today and is coming off a performance where he allowed 3 earned runs over 5 innings, striking out 8. Notably, he has a high strikeout rate (38.1 K%) that could play well against a Red Sox offense that ranks 3rd in strikeouts in MLB.

Despite the current odds favoring the Red Sox with a moneyline of -170, the projections for the Reds indicate they may still find ways to score. With the Red Sox’s offensive ranks placing them 7th overall, they will look to exploit Burns’ vulnerabilities while leveraging their strong bullpen, which ranks 7th in MLB. This matchup promises to be intriguing as both teams search for a crucial series opening win.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-180)
  Compared to the average hurler, Chase Burns has been granted a below-average leash this year, tallying an -14.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Santiago Espinal has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph dropping to 81.9-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Garrett Crochet’s four-seamer rate has decreased by 11.9% from last season to this one (53.7% to 41.8%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Typically, hitters like Wilyer Abreu who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Chase Burns.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games (+6.85 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 70 games (+8.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 away games (+7.40 Units / 77% ROI)