Team Stats and Prediction for Red Sox vs Yankees Matchup (July 05, 2024)

Boston Red Sox

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are set to clash in an American League East showdown on July 5, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. With the Yankees sitting at 54-35 and the Red Sox at 47-39, both teams are vying for positioning in a highly competitive division.

The Yankees, coming off a disappointing 8-4 loss to the Reds on July 4, will look to bounce back with Nestor Cortes on the mound. Despite his 4-7 record, Cortes boasts a solid 3.51 ERA and ranks as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his peripherals suggest some struggles, as he projects to allow a concerning 4.9 hits and 1.3 walks on average today.

On the flip side, the Red Sox edged out the Marlins in a 6-5 victory in their last game. Tanner Houck will take the mound for Boston, bringing a 7-6 record and an excellent 2.67 ERA. While Houck is ranked 22nd among starting pitchers, his 3.68 xERA hints at potential regression. His previous outing was rough, as he surrendered seven earned runs over four innings.

Offensively, both teams are powerhouses. The Yankees rank as the 3rd best offense in MLB, with Aaron Judge leading the charge, posting a .314 batting average, 32 home runs, and a 1.135 OPS this season. The Red Sox aren’t far behind, boasting the 5th best offense, with Jarren Duran hitting .283 and stealing 21 bases.

From a sports betting perspective, the Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -140, translating to an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Yankees a 61% chance to win, suggesting potential value for bettors. The Yankees are projected to score 4.91 runs, while the Red Sox are expected to put up 4.19 runs.

Factors such as Houck’s propensity for ground balls (54% GB rate) could neutralize the Yankees’ power, and his low walk rate (4.3%) might counter New York’s patient approach at the plate. Nevertheless, with the Yankees’ robust offense and Cortes’s ability to limit earned runs, they hold the edge in this series opener.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Tanner Houck is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in the league — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Enmanuel Valdez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Enmanuel Valdez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 11.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Romy Gonzalez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nestor Cortes has used his non-fastballs 5% more often this year (52.5%) than he did last year (47.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Aaron Judge’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 101.9-mph average last season has fallen to 99.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-140)
  The New York Yankees projected lineup ranks as the strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.45 Units / 36% ROI)
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+275/-390)
  Tyler O’Neill has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+10.45 Units / 104% ROI)