Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)-140
As the San Diego Padres prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 14, 2024, they find themselves in a solid position with a record of 68-53, while the Pirates sit at 56-63, struggling to find consistency this season. The Padres are coming off a dominant 3-0 victory over the Pirates yesterday, showcasing their strong offense and reliable pitching.
The matchup features Martin Perez, projected to start for the Padres, facing off against Mitch Keller of the Pirates. Perez has had a challenging season, with a Win/Loss record of 2-5 and an ERA of 4.78, ranking him as one of the lower-tier pitchers in the league. His last outing was encouraging, as he pitched 7 innings, allowing only 2 earned runs. However, his xERA of 5.50 indicates he might have been fortunate in his performance thus far.
On the other side, Keller has been more effective, boasting a 10-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.56. Yet, his recent outing was a disaster, surrendering 7 earned runs in just 4 innings. With Keller’s struggles and Perez’s recent improvement, this matchup could tilt in favor of the Padres.
The Padres’ offense ranks 1st in MLB in batting average, highlighting their ability to generate runs. Their best hitter, Jurickson Profar, has been a key contributor, boasting a .295 batting average and 19 home runs this season. Conversely, the Pirates rank 27th in offensive performance, struggling to match the Padres’ firepower.
While the projections suggest a competitive game, the Padres’ strong lineup and effective bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, give them a significant edge as they look to extend their winning streak against the Pirates.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Mitch Keller – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)Compared to the average starter, Mitch Keller has been given an above-average leash this year, recording an extra 4.9 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Connor Joe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Connor Joe’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 88.9-mph EV last season has fallen to 85.1-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The 8.6% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates ranks them as the #9 group of hitters in the majors this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Martin Perez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Martin Perez’s sinker rate has decreased by 5.4% from last year to this one (40.8% to 35.4%) .Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Despite posting a .379 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jurickson Profar has been very fortunate given the .056 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .323.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-140)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 55 games (+14.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-175)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 74 games (+12.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.30 Units / 44% ROI)