Team Stats and Prediction for Orioles vs Twins Matchup 9/27/24

Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins host the Baltimore Orioles at Target Field on September 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions. The Twins, with an 82-77 record, have been above average this season, while the Orioles, sitting at 88-71, are having a strong year. This American League matchup marks the first game in the series between these two clubs.

Minnesota is coming off a narrow 8-6 loss to the Marlins, and they’ll look to bounce back with Pablo Lopez on the mound. Despite a rough last outing where he allowed seven earned runs, Lopez is ranked as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, suggesting he has the skills to rebound. His 4.11 ERA might not tell the whole story, as his 3.35 xFIP indicates some unluckiness this season.

On the other side, Baltimore suffered a heavy 10-1 defeat against the Yankees. They’ll be relying on Cade Povich, who has struggled with a 5.59 ERA this season. However, his recent performance showed promise, as he delivered a solid five-inning start with seven strikeouts and just two earned runs. The Orioles’ offense, ranked 5th in MLB, has been a powerhouse, particularly in hitting home runs, where they rank 2nd.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests a close game, projecting Minnesota’s win probability at 52% and Baltimore’s at 48%. The Twins are favored with an implied win probability of 60%, but the projections see potential value in backing the Orioles as underdogs. With Baltimore’s offense capable of explosive performances and Minnesota’s pitching looking to stabilize, this matchup promises to be a compelling contest.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Cade Povich has tallied 14.8 outs per outing this year, placing in the 18th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jordan Westburg has experienced some negative variance this year. His .343 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .388.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+125)
  The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Pablo Lopez’s four-seam fastball percentage has risen by 6.5% from last year to this one (34.5% to 41%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games at home (+12.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 79 games (+16.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)