Team Stats and Prediction for Orioles vs Twins Matchup 9/27/24

Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins host the Baltimore Orioles on September 27, 2024, at Target Field, both teams are looking to close their seasons on a high note. The Twins, with an 82-77 record, are having an above-average season but have been eliminated from division title contention. Meanwhile, the Orioles are enjoying a good run with an 88-71 record, ranking 5th-best offensively in MLB, showcasing their potent lineup.

Pablo Lopez, the Twins’ ace and currently ranked the 21st-best starting pitcher in MLB, will take the mound. With a 15-9 record and a 4.11 ERA, Lopez has been a reliable presence for Minnesota. His 3.35 xFIP suggests he’s been pitching better than his ERA indicates, pointing to some bad luck this season. The Twins’ 11th-ranked offense will look to back him up against Cade Povich, who has struggled with a 2-9 record and a 5.59 ERA.

Povich, despite his challenges, has an xFIP of 4.97, hinting at slightly better underlying performances. However, with the Orioles’ 2nd-ranked power-hitting team behind him, they’ll aim to capitalize on any mistakes. Colton Cowser, the hottest O’s hitter over the last week with three home runs and a 1.016 OPS, will be a key player to watch.

Despite the Twins being the betting favorites, leading MLB projection system THE BAT X sees more value on the Orioles, projecting a win probability 6% higher than betting markets suggest. With both teams projected to surpass their implied run totals, this matchup could offer plenty of fireworks as the Orioles look to defy the odds in Minnesota.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Cade Povich has tallied 14.8 outs per outing this year, placing in the 18th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jordan Westburg has experienced some negative variance this year. His .346 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .388.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+145)
  The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Pablo Lopez’s four-seam fastball percentage has risen by 6.5% from last year to this one (34.5% to 41%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Carlos Santana is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games at home (+12.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 79 games (+16.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)