Team Stats and Prediction for Orioles vs D-Backs Matchup 4/7/25

Baltimore Orioles

@

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Baltimore Orioles on April 7, 2025, at Chase Field in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Both teams enter this matchup with average offensive rankings, but the Diamondbacks are positioned better in the standings, currently holding a 5-5 record compared to the Orioles’ 4-6.

In their last game, the Diamondbacks’ pitcher Zac Gallen posted a solid outing, earning a win with a performance that showcased his talent, as he ranks as the 34th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Gallen’s ERA stands at 3.38, indicating he’s been unlucky, as his 2.66 xFIP suggests he should perform even better in the near future. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings today, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 6.4 batsmen on average, which is compelling.

On the other side, the Orioles will send Zach Eflin to the mound, who has a respectable 3.75 ERA but is projected for a tougher outing. Eflin’s 4.41 xFIP points to potential regression, and with the Diamondbacks ranking as the 2nd highest in MLB for walks, this could neutralize Eflin’s low-walk approach.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 7th overall in MLB, indicating a stronger lineup than the Orioles, who sit at 13th. The Diamondbacks’ offense has been buoyed by a player with a 1.117 OPS over the last week, while the Orioles’ best hitter is coming in at 1.101.

With a positive outlook for Gallen and the Diamondbacks offense facing an underperforming Orioles team, the Diamondbacks are favored in this matchup, aiming to capitalize on their home field advantage.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Because groundball pitchers hold a big advantage over groundball hitters, Zach Eflin and his 43.8% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot in today’s outing being matched up with 2 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  As it relates to his home runs, Gunnar Henderson has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His 30.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.5.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+105)
  The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Zac Gallen has relied on his non-fastballs 5.6% more often this season (59.2%) than he did last year (53.6%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Geraldo Perdomo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Arizona Diamondbacks batters collectively rank near the top of the league since the start of last season (7th-) as far as their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 102 games (+30.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+16.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)