New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
(+100/-120)-160
As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium on October 13, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League League Championship matchup. The Dodgers, boasting the 1st-ranked offense in MLB, are favored with a moneyline of -155, translating to an implied win probability of 59%. Meanwhile, the Mets enter as underdogs with a moneyline of +135 and a 41% implied win probability.
The Dodgers will send Jack Flaherty to the mound, who has been solid this year with a 13-7 record and a stellar 3.17 ERA. Flaherty is ranked 69th among starting pitchers, indicating above-average performance. However, his projection to pitch only 4.9 innings today could strain the Dodgers’ bullpen, which ranks 5th in the league according to Power Rankings.
On the other side, Kodai Senga will start for the Mets. Though he’s only started once this year, Senga holds a 1-0 record with a promising 3.38 ERA. His 1.77 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. However, the Dodgers’ power-heavy lineup, which leads MLB in home runs, might capitalize on his high flyball rate.
Offensively, the Dodgers’ lineup is a juggernaut, ranking 1st in home runs and 4th in batting average. The Mets, while not as dominant, still boast the 9th-best offense and rank 4th in home runs. The Mets’ bullpen, ranked 15th, will need to be sharp to support Senga and keep the Dodgers’ bats in check.
With both teams featuring right-handed starters, the Dodgers’ offensive prowess and home-field advantage could be the deciding factors in this series opener. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting an average scoring affair, but given the Dodgers’ offensive firepower, expect them to push that number higher.
New York Mets Insights
- Kodai Senga – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Kodai Senga in the 93rd percentile among all starters in MLB.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the most strikeout-prone lineup today is the New York Mets with a 23% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-160)Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Max Muncy is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of New York (#1-best of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 65 games (+20.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- New York Mets – Moneyline (+135)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 111 games (+23.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.65 Units / 21% ROI)