Team Stats and Prediction for Cubs vs Padres Matchup 4/15/25

Chicago Cubs

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres host the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park for the second game of their series following a decisive 10-4 victory by the Padres on April 14, 2025. Both teams are currently enjoying strong seasons, with the Padres holding a record of 14-3 and the Cubs at 11-8. This matchup features an intriguing pitching duel as Randy Vasquez, despite being ranked 278th among starting pitchers according to advanced metrics, boasts an impressive ERA of 1.72 this season. However, his 6.27 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate and could struggle against a powerful Cubs offense.

Shota Imanaga, the Cubs’ left-handed pitcher, is projected to provide a solid challenge for the Padres. With a 2.70 ERA and a solid performance this season, he is viewed as an average pitcher. However, he has been susceptible to giving up hits, projected to allow 5.8 hits on average today. The Cubs’ offense ranks 3rd overall in MLB, showcasing both power and average, while their bullpen struggles at 26th, contrasting with the Padres’ 3rd best bullpen.

In terms of offensive production, both teams have potent lineups, with the Padres ranking 4th in MLB. The Padres’ best hitter has been particularly hot lately, with a recent surge of 4 home runs over the past week, which could bode well against Imanaga. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ best hitter has also been strong, hitting .381 over the last week.

The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting a balanced expectation for run production. With the odds slightly favoring the Cubs, San Diego’s recent performance and solid starting pitching may provide them with an edge in this critical matchup.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  The San Diego Padres have 7 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Shota Imanaga in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Michael Busch has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Chicago Cubs in this game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .319, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .342 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  Out of all starters, Randy Vasquez’s fastball spin rate of 2414.6 rpm is in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme groundball batters like Jose Iglesias are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+6.70 Units / 74% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-200)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+9.95 Units / 39% ROI)