Team Stats and Prediction for Cubs vs Astros Matchup 6/28/25

Chicago Cubs

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs clash in a pivotal interleague matchup at Minute Maid Park on June 28, 2025. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Astros holding a record of 49-33 and the Cubs not far behind at 48-34. The stakes are high as the Astros seek to extend their winning momentum after yesterday’s victory over the Cubs, where they triumphed 7-4.

Lance McCullers Jr. is projected to take the mound for the Astros, facing the Cubs’ Colin Rea. McCullers has had a mixed season, currently standing as the 91st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He owns a 4.91 ERA and a 1-2 record in 2025, suggesting some potential for improvement based on his 3.91 xFIP. Nonetheless, his projections indicate that he may struggle today, primarily due to his high average of 2.0 walks and 3.9 hits allowed.

On the other hand, Colin Rea has experienced a tough stretch, capturing the attention for all the wrong reasons after allowing 7 earned runs in just 5 innings during his last start. While Rea’s 4.42 ERA sits around league average, projections hint that today may not be favorable for him against the Astros’ solid offense, which ranks 14th overall and boasts a 5th place in batting average.

As for individual performances, the Astros’ best hitter has been outstanding, with a .322 batting average and an impressive 0.867 OPS this season. He adds depth to an attack that could capitalize on Rea’s vulnerabilities, aligning with projections that suggest a high team total of 4.30 runs for the Astros. With the Cubs trailing slightly in this contest, this matchup could provide Houston with a significant upper hand as they look to assert their dominance in the series.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Colin Rea has gone to his four-seam fastball 25.8% more often this season (45.7%) than he did last season (19.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball bats like Kyle Tucker usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr..
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.6% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Lance McCullers Jr. – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Among all SPs, Lance McCullers Jr.’s fastball velocity of 90.7 mph grades out in the 16th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Christian Walker is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Placing 6th-highest in baseball this year, Houston Astros batters as a unit have compiled a 15.2° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable standard to study power skills).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 29 games at home (+13.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 72 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 58% ROI)