Team Stats and Prediction for Cubs vs Astros Matchup 6/28/25

Chicago Cubs

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Houston Astros

On June 28, 2025, the Houston Astros host the Chicago Cubs at Minute Maid Park for the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are enjoying solid seasons, with the Astros sitting at 49-33 and the Cubs at 48-34. The Astros are currently ranked 14th in overall offense, while their strong batting average of .270 places them 7th in MLB. Conversely, the Cubs boast one of the best offenses, ranking 4th overall and 3rd in both batting average and home runs.

The Astros will send right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. to the mound. Despite his average ranking of 91st among starting pitchers, he has struggled somewhat this season, with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.91. However, his 3.91 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve going forward. McCullers projects to pitch around 4.3 innings and allow approximately 2.1 earned runs, while his high average of 3.9 hits allowed could be a concern against the potent Cubs lineup.

On the other side, Colin Rea will take the hill for Chicago. Although Rea has a better record of 4-3 and an ERA of 4.42, he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB according to Power Rankings. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.9 earned runs, but he also faces a low-strikeout Astros lineup, which could work in his favor.

With the game total set at an average 8.5 runs and the Astros favored at -130, there’s potential value in them outperforming their implied team total of 4.45 runs. The combination of the Astros’ solid offensive performance and a struggling Rea may tilt the scales in favor of Houston.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  Colin Rea has gone to his four-seam fastball 25.8% more often this season (45.7%) than he did last season (19.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Extreme flyball bats like Kyle Tucker usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr..
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.6% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Lance McCullers Jr. – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Among all SPs, Lance McCullers Jr.’s fastball velocity of 90.7 mph grades out in the 16th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Christian Walker is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Placing 6th-highest in baseball this year, Houston Astros batters as a unit have compiled a 15.2° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable standard to study power skills).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-125)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 29 games at home (+13.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 72 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 22% ROI)