Team Stats and Prediction for Astros vs Rangers Matchup 5/16/25

Houston Astros

@

Texas Rangers

On May 16, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Houston Astros at Globe Life Field for the second game of their series. In their previous matchup, the Rangers emerged victorious, continuing their above-average season with a record of 24-21. Meanwhile, the Astros are slightly trailing at 22-21, marking an average start to their campaign.

The Rangers are projected to start Nathan Eovaldi, who has been a bright spot in their rotation. Eovaldi boasts a solid 1.78 ERA over 9 starts this season and is ranked as the 39th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. However, his 2.48 xFIP suggests he might have benefited from good fortune and could face challenges moving forward. He is a high-groundball pitcher, which could play to his advantage against a Houston offense that has hit just 36 home runs this year, ranking them 5th least in the league.

On the other hand, the Astros will counter with Lance McCullers Jr., who has struggled this season, recording a troubling 15.75 ERA in his 2 starts. While advanced metrics indicate he may improve, his performance has been lackluster so far. McCullers Jr. has an alarming 23.1% walk rate, which could be problematic against a Rangers lineup that ranks 2nd least in walks drawn.

Despite their offensive struggles, the Rangers have an implied team total of 4.54 runs, while the Astros are projected for just 3.46 runs. The Rangers’ bullpen is ranked 26th, indicating potential vulnerabilities late in the game. Still, with Eovaldi on the mound, the Rangers appear well-positioned to capitalize on their current form and take control in this pivotal matchup.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Jose Altuve’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 84.4-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 81.6-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Houston Astros have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball velocity has dropped 2.2 mph this year (93.2 mph) below where it was last year (95.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Marcus Semien are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr..
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+11.40 Units / 46% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+7.12 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  Jake Meyers has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 46% ROI)