Team Stats and Prediction for Astros vs Angels Matchup 9/13/24

Houston Astros

@

Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face off against the Houston Astros on September 13, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Angels, with a record of 60-86, are struggling this season, ranking 28th in MLB in offense. On the other hand, the Astros sit at 78-68, enjoying an above-average campaign and ranking 8th in offense.

In their last game, the Astros showcased their prowess with a dominant performance, while the Angels continue to look for consistency. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and with Samuel Aldegheri slated to start for the Angels and Yusei Kikuchi for the Astros, the pitching duel is set to be a focal point.

Aldegheri, who has started just two games this year, holds a 1-1 record with an impressive ERA of 2.45. However, his 6.16 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate, indicating potential struggles ahead. His low strikeout rate (19.6 K%) against a disciplined Astros lineup, which ranks 4th in the least strikeouts, could spell trouble for the Angels.

Conversely, Kikuchi, with a 8-9 record and a 4.31 ERA, has been more consistent, starting 29 games this season. His 3.24 xFIP hints at some bad luck, suggesting he could improve as the season progresses. The projections indicate that Kikuchi is likely to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs, which could keep the Astros in a favorable position.

The Angels’ offense is not expected to provide much support, projected to score just 3.57 runs, while the Astros are anticipated to score around 4.93 runs. With the Angels struggling offensively and their bullpen ranking 27th in MLB, the Astros appear to have the upper hand in this matchup.

Houston Astros Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Yusei Kikuchi faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Mauricio Dubon’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 86.2-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 70.7-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Houston Astros (17.6 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy set of hitters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Samuel Aldegheri – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Samuel Aldegheri was rolling in his previous start and compiled 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Nolan Schanuel has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 13.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount higher than his 9.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (+115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 58 games at home (+7.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (-135)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 49 of their last 87 games (+14.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Zach Neto has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 28 games (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)