Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
(+100/-120)-150
As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels on August 22, 2024, both teams are looking to regain momentum in a matchup featuring struggling squads. The Blue Jays, currently with a record of 59-68, sit mid-pack in the American League but are having a below-average season. In contrast, the Angels are even further behind with a 54-73 record and have been unable to find their footing.
In their last outing, the Blue Jays fell to the Cincinnati Reds by a score of 11-7, marking a disappointing continuation of their season. Ryan Burr is set to take the mound for Toronto, although he enters the game ranked as the 147th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his poor 5.40 ERA, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 3.61 indicates a potential for better performance. Burr’s struggles include allowing an average of 0.8 hits and 0.5 walks per inning, a combination that could present challenges against the Angels’ lineup.
On the other side, Brock Burke will be starting for the Angels. Burke has a slightly better projection, allowing an average of 0.6 earned runs but still faces issues with strikeouts and hit allowance. The Angels, with a ranking of 23rd in offense, have not been able to produce consistent run support, impacting their ability to compete.
In terms of betting, the Blue Jays are favored with a moneyline of -145, reflecting a 57% implied win probability. The projections indicate a solid average run potential of 4.85, compared to the Angels’ 4.15. With Toronto looking to assert dominance in what is the first game of the series, they will need to capitalize on their offensive capabilities, especially from their best hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has been a standout this season.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)Zach Neto is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Los Angeles Angels – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-150)Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Ernie Clement has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph dropping to 81.7-mph over the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Joey Loperfido – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Joey Loperfido hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+19.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+130)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 41 away games (+5.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.30 Units / 39% ROI)