Team Stats and Insights for Yankees vs Rays Match Preview – 4/19/2025

New York Yankees

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the New York Yankees on April 19, 2025, the stakes remain high for both teams. The Rays, currently sitting at 8-12, are looking to shake off a rough start to their season, while the Yankees boast a solid 13-7 record and are riding high after a recent victory. This matchup marks the third game in the series between these two rivals, and the intensity is palpable.

On the mound, Tampa Bay will rely on Shane Baz, who has been a bright spot in an otherwise challenging season. With a stellar 2-0 record and an impressive 1.42 ERA across three starts, Baz ranks as the 46th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. However, he faces a tough challenge against a potent Yankees offense that ranks 2nd in the league, powered by their ability to hit home runs—34 so far this season.

Carlos Carrasco, projected to start for the Yankees, has had a rough go lately, posting a 5.94 ERA. While he holds a 2-1 record, his performance suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his 4.37 xFIP. Carrasco’s struggles could play into the hands of the Rays, who feature an offense ranked 8th in MLB, with a particularly strong batting average of .281, placing them 4th overall.

The game total is set at a modest 8.5 runs, indicating a potential for a tightly contested matchup. With the Rays’ bullpen ranked 17th and the Yankees at 14th, both teams have room for improvement on the mound. However, given the projections and the offensive firepower of the Yankees, Tampa Bay will need Baz to maintain his strong form and avoid the long ball to secure a victory.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Carlos Carrasco’s four-seamer percentage has decreased by 8.5% from last year to this one (25.8% to 17.3%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Austin Wells has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 10.9% Barrel% of the New York Yankees makes them the #1 group of hitters in Major League Baseball since the start of last season by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all SPs, Shane Baz’s fastball velocity of 96.3 mph ranks in the 95th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Junior Caminero has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 96.8-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 84 games at home (+4.40 Units / 5% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 18 games (+1.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Austin Wells has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)