Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
(-110/-110)+125
The Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins will clash once more at Comerica Park on July 28, 2024, for the third game in their series. The Tigers are currently fourth in the AL Central standings with a 52-54 record, reflecting an average season. Meanwhile, the Twins hold a stronger position, sitting in second place with a 57-46 record. The Tigers will look to build on their momentum after defeating the Twins 7-2 in yesterday’s game, which was expected to be a close contest.
Detroit will hand the ball to right-hander Alex Faedo, who has spent the year as a reliable bullpen arm with a 5-1 record and an impressive 3.47 ERA. However, Faedo’s role shift to a starting position today is noteworthy, given his limited starting experience this season. Despite his solid performance out of the bullpen, his peripheral stats suggest he might have been a bit fortunate so far. Faedo is projected to pitch only 1.8 innings, raising concerns about the Tigers’ need for bullpen depth.
Minnesota counters with Bailey Ober, a consistent right-hander currently boasting a 9-5 record and a 4.04 ERA. Ober’s expected 5.4 innings should provide stability for the Twins, who are looking to rebound from yesterday’s loss. His performance this season has been above average, making him a reliable option in the starting role.
The offensive matchup clearly favors Minnesota. The Twins rank 6th in offense according to Power Rankings, emphasizing their strong hitting capabilities. They also rank 7th in team batting average and 8th in home runs, showcasing a balanced attack despite their struggles with stolen bases (25th). Conversely, Detroit’s offense lags behind, ranking 24th overall and struggling with batting average (23rd) and stolen bases (26th), though they do show some pop in the lineup, ranking 18th in home runs.
From a betting perspective, the Tigers are underdogs with a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects this as a close game with a 50% win probability for Detroit, suggesting potential value in betting on the Tigers. As the Tigers aim to defy the odds and the Twins look to secure a series win, this matchup promises to be a compelling chapter in this AL Central rivalry.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #25 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Jose Miranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Despite posting a .374 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jose Miranda has experienced some positive variance given the .064 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .310.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected offense today (.305 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .324 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Bligh Madris – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Bligh Madris is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Detroit’s 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the game: #21 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 88 games (+13.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.5 (+115)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+7.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+8.30 Units / 22% ROI)